Friday, July 1, 2011

**Analysis: Bender gaining at Binnie’s expense

August 25, 2010 by ShawnMillerick  
Filed under News & Politics, Uncategorized

A two person race is easy. Voters are going to vote for you or the other guy. If you go negative and drive up his unfavorables higher than yours, you win.

But a multi-person field is tricky, because when you go negative you also drive up your unfavorables too. And whereas that doesn’t matter in a two person race, in a large field with more options, your voters can leave you and go to a third option that you are not attacking.

And therein lies Bill Binnie’s problem. He took a poll a few weeks back, realized he was losing to Kelly Ayotte and decided to rip her to pieces. He has thrown the kitchen sink at her in an act of desperation, cycling in one negative ad after another in the hopes that something sticks. Whether or not he is driving up Ayotte’s negatives remains to be seen, but he is certainly driving up his own. If voters had no other place to go, it wouldn’t matter, but in this race they have other otpions and it is causing problems for Binnie.

Binnie’s message is jobs, plain and simple. He used to have a laser-like focus on this issue, but he hasn’t talked about it in weeks. Most of his ads are negative now and the only positive one is about making English the official language of the U.S., a position everyone supports. Who knows if it is hurting Ayotte, but it is definitely hurting him. The narrative has sunk in that he threw the first punch and is slinging mud. Newspaper accounts, word of mouth, insider buzz all recount how voters are being turned off by Binnie’s ads. And Binnie’s fight with the Union Leader and the NH GOP doesn’t help matters either.

And just as this is happening, Bender makes his move. He is the other businessman in this race, has stayed positive, and now has a very effective ad up that touts his record on jobs; that used to be Binnie’s message. So as voters become turned off on Binnie, due to his own ads and Ayotte’s very effective counter-punch, they look around for someone else to support and there’s Bender.

Bender’s new ad is very good, his best so far. If he puts serious money behind it he can cause some serious problems for Binnie. And if in his next ad he points out that while he created jobs in NH, Binnie created jobs in Mexico, that could be all she wrote.


2 Responses to “**Analysis: Bender gaining at Binnie’s expense”
  1. Andrea Crowley says:

    Kelly Ayotte deserves everything she gets all about helping the police yet she let the police get away with murder as the news said an exeucution JUSTIFIED NO WAY!!!!!


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