Friday, July 1, 2011

Poll: Hodes Competitive with Ayotte, Generic Republican despite Poor Job Approval

August 19, 2009 by Patrick  
Filed under News & Politics

A new survey shows Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes (NH-02) running about even against both Republican candidate Kelly Ayotte and a generic Republican candidate in a hypothetical ballot tests for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire being vacated by Judd Gregg.

Whereas Ayotte would defeat Hodes by a two-percent margin, 51% to 49%, a generic, unnamed Republican would tie Hodes at 45% each, with 10 percent undecided. What’s more, the generic congressional ballot shows a Democrat beating a Republican by only 51% to 48%. All results are within the poll’s margin of error.

The poll was conducted exclusively for NowHampshire.com by Populus Research.

It could be worse for Hodes, though, says Steve DeMaura of Populus Research. “Despite his dangerously low approval rating Congressman Hodes is competing strongly both against a generic Republican and former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte.”

Hodes is “upside down” in pollster parlance, meaning more people disapprove than approve of the way he is handling his job in the House of Representatives. Thirty-six percent of Hodes’ job performance. Forty-three percent disapprove. Twenty-one percent are unsure or have no opinion at this time.

Hodes is not well-known in New Hampshire’s first congressional district.

Despite her relatively strong numbers in a head-to-head matchup, the results might be seen as encouraging to Ayotte’s Republican primary rivals.

“While running as the candidate ‘who can win’ Ayotte’s numbers are surprisingly similar to those of a generic Republican candidate,” said Steve DeMaura of Populus Research.

Ayotte, whose candidacy is supported by national Republicans, faces potential competition in the GOP from the state’s Republican National Committeeman Sean Mahoney and the GOP’s 1996 nominee for governor Ovide Lamontagne. Some political observers say former Republican Congressman Charlie Bass is also considering entering the primary.

The poll was conducted by Populus Research among 600 likely General Election voters between August 17 and August 18. It has a margin of error of 4 percent.

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  3. [...] It Close, And Strangely Decisive Polling junkies are likely to have a few qualms with the following data: a GOP pollster called Populus Research has Republican Kelly Ayotte leading Democrat Paul Hodes by [...]

  4. [...] August 20th, 2009 by Quiz Master by Emily SwansonNowHampshire.com (R) / Populus Research (R) 8/17-18/09; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error Mode: IVR (Now Hampshire article [...]



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