Saturday, July 2, 2011

New Poll Worrisome for Shea-Porter and Hodes

May 5, 2009 by Staff Reporter  
Filed under News & Politics

More than 18 months before a single voter casts a ballot the University of New Hampshire polling center has found troubling results for two Democrats likely to be on the ballot in 2010. In the latest Granite State Poll conducted by UNH Professor Andy Smith Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter and Congressman Paul Hodes, who is gearing up for a Senate race, show low favorability ratings.

According to Smith, “34% of New Hampshire adults say they have a favorable opinion of Hodes, 22% have an unfavorable opinion of him,8% are neutral and 35% don’t know enough about him to say.” Though not running for statewide office Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter shows more troubling numbers for her re-election. Smith writes, “38% of adults in the NH First Congressional District have a favorable opinion of her, 37% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 27% are neutral or don’t know enough to form an opinion of her. Shea-Porter’s net favorability rating stands at +1%, the lowest it has been since summer of 2008.”

In hypothetical matchups for the United States Senate Paul Hodes loses, outside of the margin of error, to both Former Senator John E. Sununu and incumbent Senator Judd Gregg. According to Andy Smith if the election were held today “46% of New Hampshire likely voters say they would vote for Sununu, 41% for Hodes, 2% for some other candidate, and 11% are not sure.”

“For any incumbent to be below 50% as they are gearing up for higher officer or re-election is dangerous. To have a favorability rating in the 30’s puts you on life support,” said one Republican consultant familiar with US Senate races in NH.

Two weeks ago NowHampshire.com reported the low first quarter fundraising numbers of Hodes. With polling numbers like this do not be surprised if other potential candidates begin to consider getting into the race. Other potential Democratic candidates for the United States Senate include the aforementioned Shea-Porter, Portsmouth small businessman Steve Marchand, Katrina Swett and former Party Chair Kathy Sullivan.

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